Modeled fair P(home team wins) for any game state — the pricing spine of the in-game edge.
| Home token | 49.3¢ | implied 0.493 |
|---|---|---|
| Away token | 50.7¢ | implied 0.507 |
P(home) = 0.514
shrunk Beta-Binomial baseline · 29 samples in cell
Run expectancy: 0.28 runs
P(batting team scores ≥1): 0.17
from the (outs, base-occupancy) tables the model fits as priors
| Brier | Log-loss | ECE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| calibrated model | 0.1514 | 0.4534 | 0.0624 |
| WE table | 0.2146 | 0.6202 | 0.1534 |
393 games · 6004 test plays · home-win rate 0.518 · built 2026-07-26T16:47:52+00:00